I’m still engrossed in Christopher Steiner’s “$20 Per Gallon” although I’ll admit I’m also reading a couple of other books right now too. Steiner’s book tends to bog down a bit so there are parts I’m skipping but it’s still interesting, and futuristic, reading. Here are more of his predictions:
$10 Per Gallon: At this level our decades-long romance with vehicles will drop considerably and the idea of kids receiving a new set of wheels when they turn 16, will be a distant memory. For the record, my girls did NOT get a car from their parents when they became Sweet Sixteen. I’m sure they will be glad to share the criteria for getting a car at our house! But I digress – here’s what to expect when gas takes an Alexander Hamilton for a measly gallon:
- UPS will be totally brown! Already this business is looking for ways to save on fuel (all routes exclude left turns) and by time gas is at this level, their entire fleet will use something other than gas – mostly likely electricity but they are exploring other options in order to be ready.
- e-commerce will be more prominent – who wants to drive to the mall to shop at those gas prices?
- Plug-in hybrids will help sustain us as we move to an all-electic future.
- Alternatives to the all-electric car will emerge – stuff like the hydraulic hybrid drivetrain. I don’t understand it, but apparently it’s going to help save us.
- Toll roads will be widespread.
- Bicycle lanes will become more prominent in communities.
- Gas-guzzling toys will become extinct – stuff like snowmobiles, jet skis, speedboats, ATVs. Now we’ll be looking at kayaks, canoes, sailboats.
- We’ll start to see new kinds of ecofriendly plastics – the old stuff is made of petroleum-based substances. Right now, in Iowa, companies are working on ways to turn corn into a strong, biodegradable plastic since the corn won’t be needed for ethanol.
$12 Per Gallon: While this day seems far away, we need to get ready now and New York City is already ahead of the game. Here are some possible scenarios:
- Subway systems will flourish – what better way to move people between places than with infrastructure that’s already in place. Right now, NYC is spending $7 billion for one set of commuter train tubes but they have the demand. New Yorkers have depended on the subway for years – not like other major cities that added theirs during the age of “romancing the auto”.
- New cities may arise – for instance New Songdo City is currently being built in South Korea. It’s projected to be completed in 2015 and house 65,000 but over 300,000 people will work there. Check it out – the advances in technology and energy-efficiency are astounding and this city may be a blueprint for more to follow.
- Americans will return from the suburbs to the cities. People will need/want to be where they work – and they will want smaller dwelling places. Cities offer jobs, apartments, less need for cars.
- Cities will regroup, renew and grow denser – no more urban sprawl. Expect more renaissances like Chicago, San Francisco and Seattle have already experienced. Places like St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland need to get on board now.
- Zoning laws will be trashed. Without zoning laws to hinder progress, buildings can be more densely packed.
- Look for a return to the neighborhood – complete with a small grocery store, bakery, dry cleaner – all within walking distance.
$14 Per Gallon: Building on all the premises of previous chapters, Steiner really lets lose on a big gun!
- Wal-Mart will fail! Yep – you heard me. Small towns will get revenge on the gay and steel-blue big box. Where they have already been abandoned in favor or bigger and better Wally Worlds, they are known as “ghostboxes.” Even now many of them are sitting empty without a buyer in sight.
- Why will Wally fail? First of all, people won’t get in the car and drive their to shop on the spur-of-the-moment. Just think, no more peopleofwalmart.com to entertain us. And second, Wal-Mart won’t be able to maintain their vast distribution network which works now thanks to cheap gas.
- Small towns will revert back to Main Street – smaller homes, neighborhoods, local stores – everything will be geared for the citizens who live there. Even telecommuters will relish this easy-going life and will help support the local economy.
- The small towns that will flourish the most still have their downtown areas intact – the buildings may be empty but as long as they are still standing, they can be brought back to life.
- Railroads will deliver the goods – a real boon for the small towns that once depended on the iron horse to bring their products instead of the asphalt ribbon.
- We’ll stop sending our cash overseas for cheap merchandise – because at this rate, it may still be cheap but it won’t be inexpensive.
- If we quit importing so much stuff, manufacturing will see a revival in the USA.
- The earth will thank us – we’ll have less garbage, less stuff for the landfills.
- The effects of $14 per gallon will ripple to almost everything we use – carpet, roofing shingles, anything made of plastic, wood, metal – anything that is transported on rail, ship or road. Raw materials like ore, oil, sugar, coal.
- Construction will use local materials – i.e. no more Douglas fir two-by-fours in the Midwest when they come from the Pacific Northwest.
- Overpackaging will be a distant memory.
- Newspapers will be web-based only – no more paper boy throwing your daily dose of news and comics at the crack of dawn.
I’m down to the last few chapters – stay tuned for the final edition in a few days.
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